Using Circumstantial Evidence as a Springboard for Further Research

I recently watched an archived webinar by Marian Pierre-Louis entitled Cracking the Case of Nathan Brown's Parents, hosted by Legacy Family Tree. In this webinar, which was fabulous, by the way, Marian uses indirect evidence to support her supposition of who Nathan Brown's parents were. One thing she discussed was using naming patterns as evidence to include or exclude possible family groups from your research.

Today I was happily throwing away bricks from my recently demolished wall when I came across a stumble in the road; who were the parents of Hersey Gilbert? Doing the usual Ancesty  and Google search brought me limited information about his birth. Everything seemed to point only to his marriage and subsequent children. I did come across someone who posted their family tree with parents assigned to my Hersey Gilbert, but as usual, I noted this in the back of my mind since there was no source citation.